The national electricity supply system remains under significant pressure. The recent economic downturn provided temporary relief. However, the economy is recovering with consumption levels now exceeding that of 2008. There is a high likelihood that there will be an energy supply shortfall over the period until 2015. The supply – demand balance will be tightest for 2011-2012 as additional supply options are relatively limited until new generation capacity starts to come on line. After taking into consideration the Eskom planned Demand Side Management (DSM) Programme, a shortfall of 9 TWh of energy is forecast for 2012, which is comparable to the energy produced by ~1000 MW of base load capacity in a year.
A number of supply and demand initiatives are being implemented to reduce the energy gap. These include amongst others additional non-Eskom generation, accelerated DSM, additional Demand Market Participation, the reduction of generation unplanned outages and bringing on-line the Return to Service (RTS) power stations. Irrespective of these initiatives, under certain scenarios, a gap of between 3 and 6 TWh will still exist in 2011 and 2012.
Since implementation of the NERSA Integrated Demand Management (IDM) policy in 2004, electricity system requirements have gradually changed from peak demand to primarily energy savings requirements. The current NERSA policy still focuses on the reduction of electrical load in the Eskom peak periods, and not the reduction of energy. Furthermore Eskom has received various requests from stakeholders to consider the submission and approval of projects in bulk. Therefore, Eskom has reviewed the Demand Side Management (DSM) implementation processes to speed up the delivery of projects through various channels.
As a result, Eskom launched the Residential mass roll out programme to stimulate bulk replacement of inefficient lighting, implementation of energy saving technologies and load control devices in the residential sector. The allowable technology mix is as follows:
EE CFL replacing Incandescent lighting
EE LED Downlighters replacing Halogen Downlighters
EE Flow restrictors